Incumbent MLA: Dana Lajeunesse (BC NDP | 2024)
Candidates:
BC NDP: Dana Lajeunesse
BC Conservatives: Mike Hicks
BC Greens: David Evans
OneBC: Shane Friesen
Christian Heritage: Jeff Brown
2024 Results:
BC NDP - 38.8%
BC Conservatives - 38.2%
BC Greens - 23.0%
Sprawling across much of southern Vancouver Island, the largely rural riding of Juan de Fuca-Malahat was shockingly close on election night 2024. Composed of the western reaches of John Horgan’s old riding of Langford-Juan de Fuca and the southern half of Sonia Furstenau’s old riding of Cowichan Valley, this riding was expected to be a comfortable victory for the New Democrats.
However, previous Green strength and Horgan’s enduring brand had actually masked the needs of developing communities along the Malahat Highway and beyond.
Given the lush nature in much of the riding, the actual large towns in Juan de Fuca-Malahat are situated along its two main highways. In the south, you have Sooke as the main municipality, with smaller communities such as Metchosin, East Sooke and along Highway 14 like Port Renfrew. Sooke has classic NDP roots, first as a mining boomtown, then as a mill town for much of the 20th century.
As forestry waned, Sooke pivoted from resource extraction to become a bedroom community for the Capital Regional District. Unlike more developed communities like Esquimalt or Langford, Sooke was able to effectively leverage its picturesque landscapes to develop a local tourism and recreation industry. In turn, those industries attracted people with a green thumb who enjoy the outdoors, thus building a base for Green support.
To the north, along the Malahat Highway, you have the communities of Cobble Hill, Mill Bay, and Shawinigan Lake. All of them are former milltowns that have diversified into tourism and agriculture, attracting downsizing retirees from Victoria looking to get in touch with nature.
However, the congested trips commuters face when driving along the Malahat has fuelled a sense of alienation from the broader Capital Regional District. Given the advanced age of residents and the struggles these towns face to retain family physicians, healthcare is top of mind. Both the NDP and the Conservatives have made major promises to expand access here.
The New Democrats are fielding incumbent MLA Dana Lajeunesse, who was previously a Sooke district councillor. Also running again is Green candidate David Evans, who operates a retail and wholesale coffee roasting business in Sooke. The Conservatives, on the other hand, are running a new candidate, Mike Hicks, the former director for the Juan de Fuca Electoral Area which covers communities west of Sooke like Port Renfrew, East Sooke, Malahat, and Fairy Creek.
Further to the right of Hicks, you have tradesman Shane Friesen of Cobble Hill for OneBC and accountant Jeff Brown of Sooke for the Christian Heritage Party. With the Greens ticking up provincewide, Lajeunesse will have to fend off Evans in Sooke whilst hoping that Friesen and Brown can slice off a crucial sliver of the Conservative vote, especially in Cobble Hill and Mill Bay.
The controversy around Hicks’ comments on First Nations could galvanize the consolidation of the progressive vote behind Lajeunesse, but the first-term MLA will have a fight on his hands to stop the Westshore from going blue.
Hugh Chan is an International Relations student at the University of British Columbia who sometimes moonlights as a political reporter.
