ZIVO: Could the BC NDP engineer a Carney-style revival?

By electing Kerry-Lynne Findlay as their leader, the BC Conservatives have gambled that pivoting rightward, at the expense of the centre, can deliver enough votes to win the next provincial election.

This is a reasonable strategy if one assumes that the BC NDP will remain committed to Premier David Eby’s far-left agenda, but could backfire if he is replaced by a charismatic new leader who can oversee a centrist rebrand.

Since surging into relevancy in 2024, the BC Conservatives have struggled to define themselves and their values. This is primarily because the party absorbed a significant number of moderate voters after BC United’s collapse, many of whom had only tenuous connections to conservative politics. Politically homeless, they joined the conservatives reluctantly, out of disgust for Eby’s ideological excesses, and with the tacit understanding that the party would act as a big tent.

Naturally, this created friction with the party’s conservative base, who worried that excessive compromise would lead to ideological vacuity. The purpose of the BC Conservatives’ revival had been to create an authentic, right-wing alternative to BC United’s milquetoast centrism, so what would be the point if it inadvertently recreated the dynamics of its vanquished predecessor? 

Former party leader John Rustad did his best to merge these competing factions, adopting moderate stances on gender ideology and Indigenous reconciliation. This irritated many party members, who accused him of abandoning the values that had animated grassroots volunteers, and ultimately caused three MLAs to quit caucus.

After Rustad was deposed last autumn, the new leadership race gave the party an opportunity to democratically resolve its identity issues, with interim leader Trevor Halford acting as an effective mediator during this transitional period.

The race produced five final candidates: Findlay and Caroline Elliott represented the populist cultural conservatives; Iain Black and Peter Milobar represented the moderates; and, finally, Yuri Fulmer tried to woo both centrists and the hard-right with muddled messaging.

In the first ballot round, the populist conservatives received 56 per cent of the vote, while the moderates received only 31 per cent, confirming that centrists remain a sizable, and clearly indispensable, minority.

After several eliminations, wherein the least popular candidates had their votes redistributed based on voters’ rankings, Findlay won with 50.1 per cent of the vote, defeating Elliott, who had 49.9 per cent. Both women championed near-identical policy positions, so why does it matter which prevailed? The answer boils down to style and symbolism.

Findlay, who is 71-years-old, was previously chief opposition whip for the federal Conservatives and, before that, served in cabinet under former Prime Minister Stephen Harper. As a senior establishment figure, she emanated stability, conventionality and partisan credibility.

In contrast, Elliott had never been elected to office and had been associated with BC United before making her name as an erudite conservative commentator. At 39-years-old, her youthfulness gave her campaign a disruptive quality that connected her to Canada’s burgeoning “new right” — a millennial-driven movement that embraces cultural politics, often from the perspective of generational fairness, while avoiding boomer stuffiness.

Though Elliott rallied against progressive excesses — particularly Indigenous and gender radicalism – her academic disposition softened her message, and this, along with her outsider status, made her more palatable to moderates.

This is not just a vibes-based assessment: post-race data shows that Elliott was most popular in the province’s urban areas, and that moderate voters generally ranked her higher than Findlay on their ballots. Yet, in the end, Findlay won because she was perceived as the more authentic “true blue” option, with some critics blasting Elliott as a “fake” conservative.

I personally believe that Elliott would have been the best option for a general election. The province needs cultural reform, and she offered the best “packaging” here: a young, passionate, intellectual outsider is ideal for connecting with younger Canadians who, having been robbed of their dreams, yearn for disruption.

Nonetheless, Findlay is undoubtedly an intelligent and principled individual whose political experience could prove invaluable. It would be wise for the province’s conservatives to rally behind her, but there are some risks to be wary of, too.

As leader, she may feel inclined to steer the party, full throttle, towards “true blue” populism. Yet, having won by such a slim majority in a deeply divided membership, doing so too pugilistically could spur centrist defections. Much commentary has been made about this risk already, but, realistically-speaking, it’s a manageable problem for now, because the BC NDP is so incompetent that many centrists would rather bite their tongues than defect.

The situation resembles how moderates flocked to, and stayed with, the federal Conservatives in 2023 and 2024 despite their skepticism of party leader Pierre Poilievre. They had no other choice. But then former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was deposed and replaced by Mark Carney, whose centrist brand revived the Liberals. It’s not hard to imagine the BC NDP gambling on a similar maneuver.

The most obvious candidate here would be Port Coquitlam Mayor Brad West, an NDP-affiliated figure who rose to provincial prominence as a champion of practical progressivism. Commonsensical in both substance and tone, West’s law and order politics have earned him fans from across the political spectrum (myself included). Like Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew, he represents an earlier NDP era when progressives prioritized blue collar kitchen table issues over academic identity politics.

Shortly after Findlay’s victory was announced, West posted a statement on X describing British Columbians as a “practical people” who value safety, reliable public services and economic opportunity. He excoriated “political leadership” that is consumed by “ideology” and “partisanship,” and concluded that “we need to firmly turn the page on this era, and leave it behind.” Many interpreted these words as a signal that he may want Eby’s job.

Should West supplant Eby, then Findlay may be in trouble. It’s not unimaginable that many centrists would prefer a reformed, West-led NDP over a “true blue” BC Conservative party, especially if political purity tests proliferate under Findlay’s tenure. Further, at 41-years-old, West’s youthfulness could position him as the leading voice for disruption and renewal, turning Findlay’s establishment experience into a liability.

However, it can’t be taken for granted that West (or any equivalent centrist) could reform the BC NDP in a short period of time, as its radical elements are deeply entrenched. And even if he could, would people buy it? Carney’s honeymoon period is coming to an end. Should the federal Liberals flounder, this could discredit provincial copy-cats.

Findlay nonetheless should prepare for this challenge. In practice, this means ensuring that moderates still feel at home within the party (no purity tests, please); recruiting political rivals with appeal outside the traditional conservative base; and uplifting younger voices who can connect with anti-establishment voters.

Adam Zivo is a freelance journalist best known for his columns in the National Post; his on-the-ground coverage of wartime Ukraine and Israel; and his extensive reporting of Canada's addiction crisis.