RBC report finds capital slowly returning to Canada following nine year, $1 trillion exodus

A new report from RBC Thought Leadership has quantified an unprecedented decade of capital flight from Canada.

Between 2015 and 2024, more than $1 trillion in investment exited the country—the largest capital exodus in Canadian history. For every dollar of foreign direct investment that arrived, two dollars left.

Last year marked a tentative turnaround. Foreign direct investment reached nearly $100 billion, the highest level since 2015 and the first time in a decade that inflows exceeded outflows.

The report identifies a substantial opportunity to reverse that trend. The opportunity is unfolding amid a broader shift in global capital flows, as geopolitical tensions and supply-chain realignment push allied countries to secure energy, critical minerals and defence capabilities from stable partners like Canada.

Over the next ten years, Canada requires roughly $1.8 trillion in new investment across six export-oriented, R&D-intensive sectors: oil and gas ($705 billion), electricity ($670 billion), agriculture and food processing ($205 billion), metals and minerals ($200 billion), defence ($19 billion) and space ($12 billion). Realizing even a portion of that potential would position Canada as the G7’s growth leader.

RBC Thought Leadership argues Canada’s challenge is not a lack of capital, but a mismatch between available capital and investable opportunities. Large institutional investors tend to favour stable, de-risked assets, while many Canadian projects remain stuck at earlier, riskier stages due to regulatory delays and commercialization gaps.

The report contrasts two futures. Under a “Trend Growth” scenario, Canada completes already-approved projects and sees modest incremental expansion. The “Step Change” scenario envisions a purposeful national strategy: two new oil pipelines and three additional LNG terminals — part of what the report describes as a path to “energy superpower” status; major expansions in nuclear, hydro and renewables plus grid modernization; accelerated development of critical-mineral mines; scaled defence procurement; and doubled space-sector market share.

To unlock the capital, RBC proposes a four-pillar framework: brownfield-to-greenfield asset recycling of mature public infrastructure; scale-enabling procurement that acts as an anchor customer for innovative projects; reforms to corporate income tax and foreign-investment rules to improve certainty and after-tax returns; and strategic use of state capital to de-risk early-stage opportunities without displacing private investment.

The report notes that Canada’s non-financial corporate sector already sits on more than $1 trillion in cash that could crowd in additional institutional, risk, foreign and state capital. It also emphasizes that Indigenous economic partnerships, when embedded early and aligned with community needs, can accelerate project approvals and timelines.

Whether Canada seizes this moment amid shifting global capital flows will depend on delivering policy predictability, regulatory efficiency and a higher tolerance for commercially viable risk, the analysis concludes.