DOSMUKHAMEDOV: BC is becoming a province investors quietly quit

There is a phrase that captures what is happening to British Columbia’s investment climate better than any government statistic.

Michael Goehring, President and CEO of the Mining Association of BC, put it plainly: “Investment hates uncertainty. Investment’s a coward. It just quietly quits.”

The quiet quitting has now become loud enough to measure.

BC lost 19,200 jobs in March 2026 — the largest single-month decline of any province in Canada, according to Statistics Canada. The unemployment rate hit 6.7%, the highest level in a decade outside the COVID pandemic.

The government attributes much of this to US tariff pressure, and that is partly right. Tariffs are real, and their effects on trade-exposed sectors are documented. But tariffs are a headwind from Washington. There is a second headwind, entirely self-inflicted, originating in Victoria.

The Business Council of British Columbia surveyed its senior members in late April 2026. The results were unambiguous. Ninety-eight percent said DRIPA is not living up to its original promise of creating investment certainty.Three-in-four said they are decreasing investment plans in BC.

Nearly 75% cited increased time, cost, complexity or uncertainty in permitting. One in three BCBC members reported reducing hiring. Reconciliation and investment are not in conflict — but a framework that drives away capital serves neither.

These are not ideological opponents of reconciliation. The BCBC stated explicitly that its members want to advance durable reconciliation that promotes prosperity and closes socioeconomic gaps. What they are saying is that the current framework is making all of that harder, not easier.

The mining sector tells the most precise story because its investment decisions are directly traceable to regulatory certainty — or its absence. No one seriously argues that resolving decades of unaddressed Aboriginal title questions would be simple or without transitional costs. But there is a difference between unavoidable complexity and avoidable policy failure.

According to the Fraser Institute, BC mining investment has fallen from a peak of $3.3 billion in 2012 to $2.0 billion in 2024 — a decline of more than 40% in inflation-adjusted terms. Nominal investment fell a further 19% between 2023 and 2025, according to Fraser Institute analysis.

This is happening as global demand for copper, gold, and battery metals is rising and Canada is trying to build critical minerals supply chains independent of China. BC has the minerals. It is losing the investment.

The Fraser Institute’s 2025 Annual Survey of Mining Companies found that 72% of respondents said uncertainty over protected areas in BC deterred investment, compared to just 15% in Alberta, and 70% cited disputed land claims as a deterrent, compared to just 17% in Newfoundland and Labrador. That differential is not geology. It is policy.

Only 15% of mineral claim applications are being processed within the government’s own 90-to-120-day service standard, according to the Association for Mineral Exploration. Junior explorers cannot raise capital. Todd Stone, President of the AME, said DRIPA is “hanging over the sector,” with many of the smallest members “seeing their way of life disappear.” Capital is not waiting for Victoria to find its footing. It is moving to Australia, to Nevada, to jurisdictions where investors can get a straight answer about whether their approvals will hold.

This is not what DRIPA was supposed to deliver. When the legislation passed in 2019, the Premier’s Office stated explicitly that the new law aimed to create further certainty for investment. The BCBC survey has now documented that 98% of the province’s senior business leaders believe that promise has not been kept.

Premier Eby proposed amendments to address the resulting uncertainty. He committed to introducing them in the spring 2026 legislative session. He then reversed that commitment, declining to table any amendments at all. The government that designed the framework, failed to anticipate its consequences, and retreated from its own repair commitment is now asking the business community to trust that fall 2026 will be different.

Goehring’s response has been consistent: “We need clarity, we need certainty.” That is not a partisan demand. It is the minimum condition for investment in any jurisdiction.

Investment does not require perfection. It requires predictability. Investors price risk, manage risk, and build risk into their models. What they cannot price is unknowable uncertainty — whether a permit will be granted, whether a claim will be challenged, whether a project approved today will face a new legal obstacle tomorrow.

Unlike the tariff pressure originating in Washington, this uncertainty was built in BC, by BC politicians, with BC legislation. It can be fixed by the same.

The cost of not fixing it is not theoretical: it is mining investment down 40% over a decade, roughly 36,000 jobs lost across the province in the first three months of 2026 according to Statistics Canada, and junior explorers cancelling field seasons while copper and gold deposits sit in the ground waiting for a government willing to give investors a straight answer.

Until the framework is repaired, the investment will keep quietly quitting — and the jobs that follow investment will keep quietly disappearing with it. 

Yerzhan Dosmukhamedov holds a doctoral degree in law from the University of Oxford and is a former senior associate member of the University of Oxford. He specializes in constitutional and international law and writes on governance and accountability in British Columbia.