With 18 days until British Columbians go to the polls on October 24, Day 15 of BC War Room turned to the ridings most likely to decide who governs the province.
Hosts Michael Gardiner, senior partner at Current Public Affairs and former executive director of the BC NDP, and Azim Jiwani, principal of Public Opinion Canada and former chief of staff to the BC Conservative Party, worked their way from the North through the Tri-Cities, Richmond and Delta before landing on the battleground both agree matters most: Surrey.
In the North, the verdict was simple: nothing is changing. Jiwani expects the Conservatives to hold everything they won last time, while Gardiner sees only a remote chance in Bulkley Valley-Stikine and expects Tamara Davidson to hold North Coast-Haida Gwaii comfortably. The Tri-Cities offered more drama. Both hosts put Coquitlam-Burke Mountain on the watch list, with Gardiner conceding NDP incumbent Jodie Wickens faces a tough fight despite her reputation as one of the hardest-working MLAs in the House.
Port Moody-Coquitlam, where former Anmore mayor John McEwen is challenging Rick Glumac, sits on the edge of the bubble, in play only if the Conservatives climb past 55 seats. Both expect a Conservative sweep in Richmond, Ian Paton to hold Delta South with ease and the NDP to keep Delta North after Ravi Kahlon's departure. Then came Surrey, where the last election redrew the electoral map. Jiwani believes the Conservatives could nearly sweep the city.
Gardiner argues the NDP held its remaining seats through one of its toughest campaigns and is unlikely to lose more, though Garry Begg, re-elected by just 22 votes after a recount, will be in tough. Their shared conclusion: whoever wins Surrey wins government. The hosts also sparred over the NDP's tax message. Gardiner argued the party erred by talking about marginal rates rather than average rates, where BC remains among the lowest-taxed provinces.
Jiwani countered that the class-warfare framing, including shots at Jimmy Pattison and Save-On-Foods, simply isn't landing. On healthcare, Jiwani said NDP warnings about cuts ring hollow while rural ERs keep closing, and Gardiner pressed Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson to explain how he can cut taxes, shrink the deficit and boost health spending all at once.
The episode closed on Quebec, where the CAQ fell from 90 seats to none, a reminder that a split vote can erase a party overnight.
Stay tuned to the BC War Room with new episodes dropping every weekday morning until election day.
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