Advance polls closed on Day 31 of the BC campaign, with about 711,000 British Columbians having voted in the first five days, down about 9% from the same point in 2024. On the BC War Room, Michael Gardiner and Azim Jiwani were joined by Raj Sihota, a veteran NDP strategist who served as party director under John Horgan, to ask whether David Eby can still pull off his early election call.
Three days out, Sihota said, most war room staff have already been sent to battleground ridings to bring out the vote. The platforms are out and the events are done. What's left is mobilization.
Then came predictions. Jiwani called a Conservative majority of 52 to 61 seats. Gardiner called it a coin toss leaning Conservative, with Surrey still the deciding ground. Sihota agreed it is weighted toward the Conservatives and said Eby is in tough. Jiwani argued the NDP failed to make Lorne Doerkson scary. Sihota credited the Conservatives with a disciplined campaign, but warned that holding a large, largely new caucus together after election day would be a much harder test.
The panel split on what lower advance turnout means. Gardiner noted that change elections usually bring surges in participation, and said the numbers suggest many New Democrats haven't yet decided to vote for Eby. Jiwani argued that some NDP voters who can't stomach voting Conservative may simply stay home. On the Greens, Gardiner and Sihota expect the vote to consolidate on election night, noting it is not purely a parked NDP vote.
Looking past Saturday, Sihota said Eby needs to finish ahead of where he started, or face leadership questions from election night onward. Emily Lowan, she said, must win her own seat to remain a player. Asked why the NDP didn't step aside in Lowan's riding, the panel's New Democrats said the two parties are fundamentally different, and New Democrats should always have a candidate to vote for.
Sihota recalled that the Horgan–Weaver partnership began with the confidence and supply agreement and delivered most of the NDP's 2017 platform. Her closing message: should the NDP prevail, it needs to get back on the Horgan track and speak to a much broader group of British Columbians.
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