Incumbent MLA: Jeremy Valeriote (BC Green | 2024)
Candidates:
BC NDP: Michelle Livaja
BC Conservatives: Ayla Dumais
BC Greens: Jeremy Valeriote
CentreBC: Dan Wood
2024 Results:
BC Greens - 38.1%
BC Conservatives - 35.6%
BC NDP - 26.3%
From West Vancouver all the way to Pemberton, this riding running along the majestic Sea to Sky highway was one of two ridings where a BC United MLA wasn’t succeeded by a Conservative. Even as the Greens lost ground in southern Vancouver Island and party leader Sonia Furstenau went down to defeat, geological engineer Jeremy Valeriote avenged his narrow 2020 loss and gave the party a beachhead in the Lower Mainland for the first time in its history.
The win did not come easily. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky began slipping from the BC Liberals in 2017, where the BC Greens once again nudged past the BC NDP to claim second place. Andrew Weaver’s intellectual and centrist image gave him a certain cache with “too rich to vote NDP” moderates who were concerned about climate change.
In 2020, Valeriote built on that with a strong campaign that squeezed the New Democrats down to third, coming so close that on election night, the seat was initially called for him before Liberal-leaning mail-in ballots erased his lead. With 4 additional years of organizing, Valeriote pipped past BC Conservative star candidate Yuri Fulmer by 2.5% in a squeaker of a race.
The riding’s political divisions can be sorted by its eponymous communities. The portions of West Vancouver in the riding, such as Horseshoe Bay and Eagle Harbour, boast some of the most expensive real estate in the province. In the 2000s and 2010s, the BC NDP would struggle to even break double digits in some polls here while the BC Liberals dominated with northwards of 80% of the vote.
The receding of British Columbia’s class-based polarization and the rise of educational polarization has softened the area’s leaning towards the free enterprise coalition, however. In 2024, the more populist BC Conservatives lost ground compared to the BC Liberals, whilst the Greens’ less radical image allowed them to simultaneously draw on progressives looking to strategically vote whilst appealing to wealthy moderates concerned about the climate.
Travel up the Sea to Sky, and you have a very different story. The two largest towns along the route, Squamish and Whistler, lean firmly to the left, albeit with different roots. Squamish was once a mill town dependent on the forestry economy, but harnessed its scenic location to transition into tourism and the active living lifestyle. Whistler, on the other hand, is the province’s only formally designated resort municipality and is heavily dependent on seasonal skiing to maintain its prosperity.
The BC Conservatives are eyeing West Vancouver-Sea to Sky hopefully as a potential pickup. Emily Lowan is a sharp turn left from leaders past, and her wealth tax proposal could energize conservative turnout against Valeriote in West Vancouver. The Conservatives are similarly running a young woman, Ayla Dumais, who was previously a staffer in the OLO (Opposition Leader’s Office) in Ottawa for Pierre Poilievre. Dumais is Indigenous, grew up in Squamish, and has worked on the Woodfibre LNG project within the riding.
What could stifle their hopes is who the New Democrats are running. Jen Ford, their strongest recruit in recent cycles, chose to forgo another bid for provincial office to focus on her municipal re-election campaign. In her place is longtime labour activist and NDP staffer Michelle Livaja, who previously ran in 2017 but has a lower profile overall. With a Green incumbent in place now, the NDP could find itself squeezed as progressives in Squamish and Whistler strategically vote for Valeriote to keep out the Conservatives.
For the BC Greens, this is the contest with the highest stakes. If West Vancouver-Sea to Sky flips, they lose official party status and the funding that accompanies it, leaving Lowan alone in the Legislature without backup. Furthermore, a potential Conservative pickup would dramatically narrow any path to a coalition government between the Greens and the NDP. Keep an eye on here during election night.
Hugh Chan is an International Relations student at the University of British Columbia who sometimes moonlights as a political reporter.
