Incumbent MLA: Garry Begg (BC NDP | 2017)
Candidates:
BC NDP: Garry Begg
BC Conservatives: Garry Thind
BC Greens: Jodi Murphy
Unaffiliated: James Yaroshuk
2024 Results:
BC NDP - 46.9%
BC Conservatives - 46.8%
BC Greens - 4.3%
Independent - 1.9%
In 2024, BC NDP incumbent Garry Begg squeaked back into office with a margin of just 22 votes, earning him the moniker of “Landslide Garry.” Now, two years after handing the BC NDP the slimmest possible majority, Surrey-Guildford is once again a seat to watch.
Surrey-Guildford has long been a bellwether. In every election held during the 21st century, the riding went with the province-wide winner — the BC Liberals 2001-2013, then the BC NDP 2017-2024.
What makes the riding so consistently predictive is its unique blend of demographics and geography. Guildford is not only whiter than other Surrey ridings north of Highway 10, which are predominantly South Asian, it also features greater ethnic and income diversity.
According to the 2021 Census, people of Chinese descent are the largest visible minority group in the riding, making up 17% of the population. Filipinos (12%) and South Asians (11%) are close behind, and there are also sizeable Korean (5%), Southeast Asian (5%), and even Latin American (4%) communities in the riding as well.
Unlike other ridings in battleground Surrey, the riding is clearly geographically polarized, with the Trans-Canada Highway as a divider. West and south of the Highway is where the BC NDP runs up the score, with particularly strong support around Guildford Town Centre. There, the high population of renters, many of whom are Filipinos working in unionized public healthcare jobs, is what gives the BC NDP its strongest results in the entire riding.
On the other side of the Highway, to its east and north, is where the right-wing party of the day rules the roost. The wealthy neighbourhood of Fraser Heights can feel like a world unto itself at times, and the high-income, high-education residents of the neighbourhood were favourably predisposed to the BC Liberals barring their exceptional 2020 meltdown.
Even as Fraser Heights becomes more diverse in ethnic background, the incomes of its residents have stayed relatively similar. The area has seen an influx of Chinese and Korean immigrants in the last decade, aspirational types working in private-sector white-collar jobs looking to send their children to a good school without overcrowding problems.
To defend this seat, the BC NDP is once again running former RCMP inspector Garry Begg as their candidate. With 2024 BC Conservative candidate Honveer Randhawa busy running to be Mayor of Surrey, the party nevertheless scored a fairly big get in incumbent Surrey school board trustee Garry Thind.
Last election, this race went down to the wire between a New Democrat and a BC Conservative, with a Green and an independent in a distant third and fourth. This year, the race is once again between a New Democrat and a BC Conservative, with a Green and an independent running as well.
The New Democrats need to hold steady, if not improve from 2024 and hope that any potential surge driven by new BC Greens leader Emily Lowan does not spill over to south of the Fraser. As for the Conservatives, they need to hope the party’s stellar 2024 results were not simply a fluke, but a springboard for this provincial election. If you want a sign for which party will form government after October, keep an eye on Surrey-Guildford on election night.
Hugh Chan is an International Relations student at the University of British Columbia who sometimes moonlights as a political reporter.
