Incumbent MLA: Amna Shah (BC NDP | 2024)
Candidates:
BC NDP: Amna Shah
BC Conservatives: Zeeshan Wahla
CentreBC: Raman Sharma
OneBC: Oliver Wildfong
2024 Results:
BC NDP - 46.7%
BC Conservatives - 45.1%
BC Greens - 6.1%
Independent - 1.1%
Communist - 1.0%
The story of the last provincial election was written in ridings like Surrey City Centre. In 2024, the Conservatives not only surged all across Surrey, but made the greatest gains of all in the NDP’s traditional northern strongholds.
As neighbouring Surrey North fell to the Conservatives, BC NDP candidate Amna Shah barely beat back a challenge from Conservative candidate Zeeshan Wahla. Now, the two are locked in a high-stakes rematch.
In the 2021 Census, Surrey City Centre had the highest proportion of adult residents under the age of 34, constituting 31% of the entire population. In the 5 years since the census was taken, the riding has seen numerous new apartment buildings spring up along King George Boulevard as the city’s downtown continues to grow, likely meaning that the proportion of young residents has only increased since.
This race was decided by less than 300 votes last time, and it is hard to imagine any sort of BC NDP majority after October 24th that does not run through Surrey City Centre. Aiding Shah in her quest to retain the riding is that the Greens, which pulled a respectable 6% in 2024, will not be on the ballot for this election.
Simultaneously, OneBC fielding a candidate could pull off a tiny but crucial sliver of the Conservative vote, while Centre will soak up votes from both ends of the political spectrum.
To win, the New Democrats will want to consolidate the votes of renters in new builds near the Surrey Central and King George Skytrain stations, many of whom are white-collar workers who commute to downtown Vancouver for work.
The Conservatives, on the other hand, will need to run up the score among homeowners north of 108 Avenue and south of 96 Avenue. If you want a barometer for if the NDP collapse in Surrey was a fluke or a structural realignment, keep an eye on Surrey City Centre.
Hugh Chan is an International Relations student at the University of British Columbia who sometimes moonlights as a political reporter.
