Incumbent MLA: Brennan Day (BC Conservative | 2024)
Candidates:
BC NDP: Will Cole-Hamilton
BC Conservatives: Brennan Day
BC Greens: Jay van Oostdam
CentreBC: Jason Cook
2024 Results:
BC Conservatives - 38.8%
BC NDP - 38.6%
BC Greens - 20.7%
Independent - 1.9%
Stretching from the two towns of Courtenay and Comox and extending west to encompass the broader Comox Valley Regional District, Courtenay-Comox had an unbroken streak as a bellwether riding for eight elections in a row since 1986. That streak was finally broken in 2024, when Conservative entrepreneur Brennan Day bested incumbent NDP MLA Ronna-Rae Leonard even as the New Democrats won a razor-thin majority.
After a brief stint as an independent MLA during the twilight of Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s leadership, Day rejoined the BC Conservatives following her removal as leader. The one-term MLA is up against Courtenay city councillor Will Cole-Hamilton, who bowed out of his municipal re-election battle to run provincially.
The municipal elections threw a spanner in the works of the local Greens, who may have been hoping that leadership contestant and Comox councillor Jonathan Kerr would be willing to run for the seat. Instead, the Greens have nominated public health professional and advocate Jay van Oostdam. Rounding out the ballot is the CentreBC candidate, finance professional Jason Cook.
The riding has long been polarized between its titular communities. Courtenay was an archetypical Vancouver Island resource town, playing host to workers in logging, fishing, and even coal mining for much of the 20th century. These industries built a strong union movement to accompany it, which in turn provided the initial organizing base for the CCF and then the BC NDP.
As for Comox, its economy was based more in tourism and less in resource extraction. The favourable climate of Vancouver Island made the riding particularly attractive for Albertan snowbirds looking for a temperate place to retire and golf. CFB Comox and its military families is another factor behind the town’s tilt to the right.
In a riding like this, healthcare and urban disorder are top of mind, but so is the environment. The aging populations of both major communities have resulted in local officials clamouring for further investment in long-term care homes. Visible homelessness and drug use have also climbed post-COVID and raised the salience of public safety as well. And out in the Regional District, farmers remain concerned about maintaining watersheds for sustainable irrigation instead of bottling facilities.
Cole-Hamilton will hope to build on his Courtenay roots and tap into his network across the Regional District. Meanwhile, Day will seek to tout local achievements like the K'ómoks Treaty Act and make inroads into Courtenay with 2 years as an MLA under his belt. CentreBC and the Greens could have small but crucial roles to play as well.
Crosstabs indicate that CentreBC is doing well among those above 55 - in this riding, older retirees falling out of love with the BC NDP could park their vote with Centre instead of switching outright to the Conservatives.
As for the BC Greens, their last candidate, Arzeena Hamir, had been elected to local office before and boasted a strong volunteer network given that she used to be fairly active in the local BC NDP riding association. Their new candidate may have a harder time retaining the 21% that she got in 2024.
Hugh Chan is an International Relations student at the University of British Columbia who sometimes moonlights as a political reporter.
