British Columbians voted less than two years ago. Under the province’s fixed-date election calendar, the next general election was scheduled for October 2028.
Yet Premier David Eby has dissolved the legislature and called an election for October 24 — only seven days after British Columbians vote in municipal elections.
His stated reason is Donald Trump.
Eby argues that the confrontation with the United States presents an “existential” challenge and that British Columbia needs a strong mandate to protect its economy, workers and sovereignty. Announcing the election, he compared the situation to a wildfire: when you smell smoke, he argued, you act rather than wait.
That argument deserves to be taken seriously. American trade measures have deepened uncertainty, particularly for industries such as forestry, aluminum and manufacturing.
But it leaves a more precise question unanswered: What changed between the mandate British Columbians gave this government in October 2024 and September 2026 that made an election necessary now?
Eby’s government had not lost a confidence vote. It still held a legislative majority. If the existing government already has the authority to respond to an external economic threat, what would a new mandate materially enable it to do that the current mandate does not?
The political circumstances surrounding the decision are therefore relevant — not because they prove motive, but because a government exercising discretion over election timing should expect that discretion to be scrutinized.
In May, an Angus Reid Institute survey found the BC Conservatives leading the NDP by 10 points, with Eby’s approval at 33 per cent. By September, his approval had recovered to 41 per cent and the NDP had moved ahead, 41 to 37.
The recovery was real but incomplete. More British Columbians still rated the government’s performance poorly than positively, and half said it was time for a change.
The government also faced increasing fiscal pressure. Its September update projected a $13.8-billion deficit for 2026–27, $450 million higher than forecast in February.
Waiting until 2028 would mean two more years of budgets, health-care and housing pressures and difficult government decisions — and two more years for the opposition to reorganize.
The BC Conservatives had spent months struggling with caucus departures and internal conflict. On September 20, Kerry-Lynne Findlay resigned as leader after less than four months in the position. Lorne Doerkson became interim leader.
Two days later, Eby called the election.
That chronology does not reveal what was discussed behind closed doors, and it does not prove that partisan calculations determined the date. Democratic accountability does not require mind-reading. Citizens are entitled to compare a government’s public explanation with the circumstances in which the decision was made.
Nor is this the first early election under British Columbia’s fixed-date system. In 2020, then-premier John Horgan, who led a minority government, also called an unscheduled election, with voting held on October 24.
That precedent does not settle the democratic question; it sharpens it. If fixed election dates are to constrain an incumbent government’s discretion over electoral timing, departures from that timetable deserve a clear public-interest justification.
Perhaps a renewed mandate would strengthen British Columbia in confronting the United States. Even accepting that argument leaves the specific timing unexplained.
The October 24 date imposes a democratic cost of its own. British Columbians will vote in municipal elections on October 17 and in a provincial election seven days later. Local candidates must now compete with provincial parties — backed by larger organizations and far greater visibility — for attention, volunteers, donations and media coverage.
A provincial campaign has effectively been placed on top of local contests that already struggle for public attention. Those elections concern institutions responsible for many of the issues British Columbians encounter every day: housing approvals, transportation, policing, infrastructure and local services.
If an immediate provincial election were unavoidable, that disruption might be justified.
But why was it unavoidable?
British Columbians themselves are asking essentially the same question. An Angus Reid Institute survey conducted after the election call found 62 per cent saying it was too soon to go to the polls, compared with 21 per cent who thought the timing was right. Even among those who voted NDP in 2024, 52 per cent said the election had come too soon. The same survey found the Conservatives ahead of the NDP, 43 to 35 per cent among decided and leaning voters.
That reversal should not decide the question either way. The democratic justification for an early election cannot depend on whether the governing party subsequently rises or falls in the polls. It must rest on the public interest at the time the decision is made.
Nor can Trump serve as an all-purpose answer. An international crisis does not suspend a provincial government’s obligation to account for its own decisions. British Columbians can oppose American economic pressure while simultaneously scrutinizing their government in Victoria.
External uncertainty should demand more domestic accountability, not less.
British Columbia introduced fixed election dates to reduce the ability of incumbent governments to choose election timing for political or partisan advantage. The constitutional power to dissolve the legislature earlier remains, and this election is lawful.
But legality and democratic justification are different questions.
Eby has described the threat posed by Trump and the economic uncertainty facing British Columbia. What he has not yet justified is the decision that was his to make:
Why did British Columbia need an election on October 24, 2026? That is not a partisan question. It is an accountability question — and before British Columbians cast their ballots, they deserve an answer.
Dr. Yerzhan Dosmukhamedov, LLB (Hons), LLM, DPhil (Oxon), is a Former Senior Associate Member and Research Fellow of the University of Oxford.
